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For the financial markets, June 2011 represented a microcosm of the full year—and for that matter the environment since the financial crisis took hold in 2008. The predominant opinion regarding the macro environment—global economic trends, sovereign fiscal health, or a combination of both—has determined the market’s direction. When there has been concern over these issues: Risk off. When there has been optimism: Risk on. There never seems to be a middle ground.

While difficult and frustrating to navigate, this tug-of-war does seem justified. The ramifications of the financial crisis of 2008 still leave the economic recoveries in many developed countries on unstable, if not fragile, ground. The fiscal circumstances facing the Euro Zone, Japan and the US have shown no improvement, if not further deterioration. The potential for negative outcomes in any of these areas remains hard to handicap and the associated downside risks remain significant. Further, we do not believe there are any “silver bullets” at the disposal of our politicians or central bankers and the “new normal” of anemic economic growth in the US seems to increasingly become entrenched.

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